How Accurate Are AI Demand Forecasts? A Reality Check

We put our model through a backtest: thousands of ideas scanned in 2020, outcomes tracked through 2023. The Demand Score had a 79% correlation with revenue generation above $1K MRR. The 12-month trend projection was directionally accurate 72% of the time. The Intent Classifier achieved 85% precision in identifying transactional searches. No model is perfect. Seasonal shocks, regulatory changes, and viral randomness create error. But compared to human forecasting (high accuracy), AI is a massive leap. We share our accuracy report transparently because we want founders to trust the numbers, not worship them. The forecast is a compass, not a GPS. Use it to head in the right direction, then adjust. [See the accuracy data →]